Overall yield tends to slow growth industry: according to companies within the industry in 2011-2015 years of production plan and put into production in the next 5 years project predict, papermaking capacity increment in China is about 35 million tons in 2015 in China, in papermaking industry can output will reach 135 million tons, paper and paperboard production at an average rate of about 6-7%, industry supply growth will continue to tend to slow down.
Industry future demand growth will be reduced to 6%, according to the 2000 ~ 2010 paper consumption and its relationship with the economy, we found that the paper consumption has been falling since 2007, growth obviously lower than that of GDP and show signs of an accelerated decline. We according to 2011 2015, GDP growth of 9.4%, and respectively 9.8%, 9.2%, 10% and 10.5% in the next five years, that is expected to average annual growth rate of the paper consumption keep at about 6%.
Overall yield tends to slow growth industry: according to companies within the industry in 2011-2015 years of production plan and put into production in the next 5 years project predict, papermaking capacity increment in China is about 35 million tons in 2015 in China, in papermaking industry can output will reach 135 million tons, paper and paperboard production at an average rate of about 6-7%, industry supply growth will continue to tend to slow down.
Industry future demand growth will be reduced to 6%, according to the 2000 ~ 2010 paper consumption and its relationship with the economy, we found that the paper consumption has been falling since 2007, growth obviously lower than that of GDP and show signs of an accelerated decline. We according to 2011 2015, GDP growth of 9.4%, and respectively 9.8%, 9.2%, 10% and 10.5% in the next five years, that is expected to average annual growth rate of the paper consumption keep at about 6%.
In the second half of the price is relatively stable, raw material wood waste paper is expected to continue to rise in price: the second half price will rise slightly enquiry pulp; And the price will be relatively stable hardwood pulp, and even a modest decline. Wood pulp raw material cost pressure is not big, for with wood for main raw material enterprise have little influence. International waste paper prices will continue to rise. Due to the new media news print hitting the market downturn, raw material costs cannot pass on, face the pressure large; And also to waste paper as the raw material of the box, the domestic box board paper board paper industry concentration is expected to rise further, help to improve the whole bargaining power, to pass on the cost.
The paper kind of future growth is differ, boom of development and will be stronger than paper overall industry situation, annual rate as high as 15% to 20%
Corrugated board boxes, paper and annual rate will reach 18%-20% : in the global economy for comprehensive recovery and Japan by an earthquake and tsunami and nuclear leakage under the background of hit, excluding Japan's six major developed economies in the first half of this year the economic growth stronger than expected, at an annualised rate is expected to reach 3%. With an overall recovery of the global economy, the society from all walks of life for corrugated packaging needs of increased. China corrugated carton industry in recent years with an average annual growth of 18% to 20%. According to the forecast, in 2013 China will overtake America as the world's largest corrugated and corrugated board paper market.
The development of high-grade wrapping paper space will more vast, growth of 15%, compared with the developed countries, China packaging consumption per capita is very low, per person each year in the United States for packaging of the cost of $311, Japan, Europe $460 to $385, and our country about $12 or so, in only for the developed countries of the 3% 4%. As China's sustained economic growth, urbanization process, consumption upgrade continue to speed up the trend of white paperboard will push to coating of white paper consumption form, is expected to replace the next three years, compound annual growth rate will reach 15%.
Life paper and per capita GDP per capita consumption is very relevant: renewable life in developed countries already have paper high penetration rate; And domestic are in development, is expected to import 2015 potential market capacity of about 700000 tons of market supply and demand, there is a huge gap.
Industry rating and investment advice: based on the analysis of the second half, we judge industry investment opportunity not obvious, the paper to maintain "neutral" investment rating. Although our paper industry overall remain cautious attitude, but the paper kind of future growth are different, so in investment strategies sall treat, we will prefer for packaging of high-grade white cardboard corrugated cardboard box,; And in the development life paper. The current production such boom of enterprise valuation paper are at record low, only 15 to 20 times. We will prefer the sun paper, paper, paper JingXing bo remit.